Using financial and market forecast data from Nokia's Capital Market Day and some assumptions I did a rough estimate of the number of maemo6 devices the company expects to sell in 2011. Quite a few as it turns out, and the growth rate they expect is phenomenal. Have a look here http://talk.maemo.org/showpost.php?p...9&postcount=16

i kinda doubt that maemo-devices will become so popular, but obviously it would a good thing to happen for the community.

Currently about 20 million Nseries devices per year, so Maemo devices would count for about third of Nseries total.

A lot of people here really underestimate the scale of nokia. If they
push Maemo on high-end devices they can certainly reach the iphone-sales numbers. By the way 10% of total devices (400million a year) is 40 million. Of course in the usa they will remain irrelevant.

Cheers

The estimate wasn't about total number of devices sold. It concerned total revenue. Price of Maemo devices is lot higher than average price for Nokia device.

Gadgety used correct numbers, altough his estimate is of course very rough.

ah ok, 40 would have been far too much. So lets hope all their
n-series will have maemo by 2012. And e-series would be nice too.

It's pretty hard to make an estimate of how much they'll sell by 2011 if we don't at least have their sales for november and december.

Nice to put a number on things though. I'm glad you brought up the topic of an sales estimate though. I've been doing some searching myself of how many units they've sold.

I Think this phone is just to establish the mobile tablet device into the cell phone market and introduce maemo5 to the community. I'm pretty sure from here on (now that the rebates are gone) sales will go down. I think maemo6 is going to change everything though. I'm pretty sure because it uses the cross platform qt development platform and supports capacitive touch it'll have a lot more appeal to consumers and developers alike.

Why do I have the n900 if I don't think it'll make too much of a impact on the market for the time being? because maemo6's qt technology will be cross platform that means software built for maemo 6 can be easily be applied to other platform, most easiest, probably to our's, n900's maemo5

Nice work there, hopefully there aren't blogs that will take your work and pretty much make a mountain out of it.

6.75 million Maemo devices would be attainable if my theories on the devices available by that point are correct. I'm assuming, just by reading tea leaves nothing concrete, that there might be 3 models running Maemo 6 release at about the same time (or released intermittently but all available by the end of 2011), all as high end devices, and with considerable enough carrier backing that they'd get the needed visibility to sell ok. Combine that with today's N-Series Symbian devices being old enough to look for something new by 2011, then you have a good case to make for devices changing hands towards Maemo's corner.

Of course, given a few things like the limted resources needed to make mobiles, economic climate, and other mobile device makers, my tea leaves could just burn asinder with higher or lower figures. And since I own no associated Nokia stock - and hopefully no one who is prognostigating such as I on this thread - I stand to make nothing from my tea leaves being the best thing since grunge music either

The total sounds impressive but in the overall smartphone market it's not. Even if Nokia attains this estimate, it would still be, at best, third behind the iPhone (which has sold several times that already) and various Android phones (which have already sold in the millions). And that's only if you don't count Symbian devices.

That seems actually quite realistic estimation, but of course that's not very impressive figure when it comes to smartphone sales, still nice start in any case.

I don't really see Maemo being used on lower end smartphones though, as I understand Symbians microkernel really does have advantages in less powerful devices, if only they'll manage to clean up its APIs and reinvent the UI in which the qt probably helps nicely. Hopefully that also does make it easier to port the apps to both Symbian and Maemo with minimum effort.

Anyway Maemo will have to find its user base from the MID crowd which will limit it's growth potential along with the fact it'll most likely be only found in Nokia devices.

But still, I have high hopes