He's actually got complaints about MeeGo being a bad phone, despite the handset UX not being out yet? Or do you mean Maemo?
Also, subsidies on devices are largely irrelevant since they're known to be required for success. The question is, at least in the US, will the carriers threaten Nokia with not carrying their devices if they decide to also sell them direct like they do now?
My whole point is; this is a market which is growing an evolving quite quickly; and right now, predicting failure or triumph for anyone is; in my opinion; quite premature.
And on top of that, the mobile market is not ruled by normal market economics.