Thread: Alternative history: What if Jolla never existed?
View Single Post
javispedro's Avatar
javispedro is offline javispedro
2015-11-20 , 19:52
Posts: 2,355 | Thanked: 5,249 times | Joined on Jan 2009 @ Barcelona
#14
Armchair analyst warning!

Originally Posted by Stskeeps View Post
The market has settled into a duopoly, Google with Android, holding most big vendors in a stronghold with it's Google Services; and Apple's iOS. AOSP-only devices were considered mostly useless. Any m-commerce vendor that couldn't participate in Google or Apple's m-commerce paths were losing money rapidly.
What duopoly? I only see Android, Android and Android from here.

iOS's worldwide market share is already less than 10% in late 2015. While forecasts right now tend to say iOS will remain at this level of market share even until 2017, they seem to ignore than on 2011 most forecasts predicted that by 2015 Android and iOS would be on equal footing.

My prediction: less than 5% by 2017. In no part because Apple will stop centering on the phone market and move on something else.
My reasoning i that the smartphone market is already terribly commoditized (current market leaders basically all "cheap copycats") and Apple doesn't work well there.

It just shows how biased we are.

What would you have them do to disrupt the mobile market? Where should they attack?
I don't think disrupting the market is possible, believing it to be a matter of luck and network effect more than anything else.
If you want to disrupt anything I'd aim lower. After all, I keep thinking that only plausible reason for the iPhone's early success was that it had a better web browser than the competition. Small details...

But I personally wouldn't try to disrupt anything in the first place.
 

The Following 9 Users Say Thank You to javispedro For This Useful Post: